AI stock & macro-risk analysis grounded in Soros's reflexivity

5
Analysis layers
3
Risk diagnostics
2
AI reasoning modes
3
REST endpoints
System Architecture
The Problem
Most stock tools output numbers or buy/sell signals with no reasoning about why markets become fragile. ReflexAI takes a different angle — grounded in George Soros's theory of reflexivity (perception → price → fundamentals) — analyzing how feedback loops amplify financial risk, pairing hard financials with AI reasoning that stays philosophically consistent.
What I Built
A dual-lane platform that fuses quantitative reality with grounded AI reasoning:
- Financial analysis: pulls and normalizes income statements, balance sheets, and cash flows for any public company via yfinance
- Risk diagnostics: computes liquidity, leverage, and profitability-resilience metrics designed to expose systemic fragility — not just report ratios
- Dual AI reasoning: a direct Gemini mode and a RAG mode grounded in a curated Soros knowledge corpus (Sentence-Transformer embeddings + ChromaDB)
- Ticker-aware context injection so the LLM reasons over a live market snapshot without becoming a trading bot
- A three-endpoint REST API (financials, chatbot, ragbot) behind a web UI deployed on Vercel
Key Decisions
The trade-offs — and why:
- Made RAG the core so answers stay grounded in Soros's actual framework instead of confident hallucination
- Used annual (not intraday) data to strip trading noise and focus on structural, macro risk
- Modeled leverage as a non-linear risk amplifier rather than a static ratio, separating accounting profitability from economic durability
- Kept ticker detection conservative to avoid false positives injecting the wrong market context
Challenges
The hard parts:
- Grounding vs. fluency: tuning retrieval so responses stay faithful to the corpus while still reading naturally
- Serverless vector persistence: the ChromaDB index depends on filesystem state, which is tricky on Vercel's ephemeral environment
- Situated reasoning: injecting just enough market context to be relevant without turning the assistant into a signal generator
Results
An interpretable research tool that pairs quantitative risk diagnostics with grounded, Soros-style reasoning — letting users explore how narrative and fundamentals feed back on each other, live at the deployed site.
What's Next
Agent-based macro simulations, scenario stress-testing, and portfolio-level systemic-risk views.